The Interview: Jeff Schmidt/Elias Athanasiou talk Greece’s M&A middle-market and the future of mergers and acquisitions

Recently Jeff Schmidt, CDI Global Executive Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, had the pleasure of talking with Elias Athanasiou, CDI Member in Greece.

The conversation covered Greece’s M&A middle-market and how Elias sees the future of mergers and acquisitions in the country.

Background:
Elias Athanasiou is a senior executive with an extensive track record in leadership roles across major Greek and multinational companies. He has served as CEO of prominent organizations, including the Hellenic Post Group, and as a board member in institutions such as the International Post Corporation, spearheading strategic initiatives and large-scale corporate transformations.

Jeff Schmidt:
I want to welcome Elias Athanasiou and thank you for joining me today. I’d like to start with talking about Greece’s M & A activity.

Is Greece an attractive place to invest for growth or diversification? What are the benefits of doing deals/investing in Greece?

Elias Athanasiou:
Hi Jeff, thank you have your time today to talk about Greece M&A marketing.

Yes, Greece has become increasingly attractive for investment due to several factors. The main one is our economic recovery and stability, following a decade of crisis, Greece has stabilized and is now enjoying improved fiscal performance, investment-grade ratings, and strong GDP growth. Another factor is our strategic location, Greece serves as a gateway between Europe, Asia, and Africa, offering access to multiple markets and trade corridors. We are also experiencing a tourism and real estate boom so these sectors have attracted significant FDI, with real estate offering strong returns, especially in hospitality and logistics.

Another reason is our digital and green transformation.  The EU Recovery & Resilience Facility (RRF) funding is catalyzing private investment in digital infrastructure, energy transition, and ESG initiatives. We also have a skilled labor at competitive cost, we have a highly educated workforce and lower labor costs than Western Europe create efficiency opportunities.

Lastly, we instituted and have ongoing reforms that reduced bureaucracy and enhanced investor protections, with asset sales, like airports, energy, and transport, continuing.

Jeff:
That’s an impressive transformation following the economic crisis.

How would you characterize the M&A middle-market in Greece currently in terms of deal flow over the past 3-5 years? What changes are forecast for the next three years? Past 3–5 years:

Elias:
Greece’s M&A deal flow has grown steadily, with private equity, family office, and strategic interest in sectors like agri-food, food & beverage, healthcare, logistics, and tech. Recently, interest to acquire private schools has surged, which have been in investors’ spotlight. Over 60% of deals involve foreign buyers or sellers. Both local and international funds and strategic investors have increased activity, drawn by attractive valuations and fragmented sectors.

Over the next 3 years, we expect a continued uptrend with Deal flow projected to rise due to several factors, such as generational transitions in family-owned businesses, consolidation in fragmented industries, government incentives and RRF-backed investments and geopolitical repositioning of Greece as a stable EU hub.  We see the key drivers for this being EU Funds Deployment (RRF), a push for digitalization, energy security, supply chain nearshoring and corporate debt refinancing/exit planning.

Jeff:
What is the trend in average valuations for cross-border/middle-market transactions in Greece? How does deal pricing in Greece compare with other parts of Europe?

Elias:
In the Greek M&A market, the trend in average valuations for cross-border/middle-market transactions is generally positive. We’re seeing valuation multiples that typically range between 5x–8x EBITDA for middle-market deals, depending on the sector and target maturity. Some sectors, such as hotels, private schools and select branded olive oil companies have commanded double-digit EBITDA multiples.

We offer discounts to Northern or Western Europe companies, where valuations are generally 10–30% higher than in Greece, creating arbitrage opportunities for buyers. In sectors undergoing consolidation, like healthcare services, food processing and IT, valuations are increasing but still below EU averages.

Jeff:
Let’s shift to the  buyer perspective. For investors looking at Greece, what industry sectors are most attractive for middle market investments and why?

Elias:
For middle market investments in Greece, several industry sectors are considered attractive, particularly those experiencing growth or having strong future potential.

Here's a breakdown of top Sectors: renewable energy and energy Infrastructure, driven by Greece's decarbonization targets and strong solar/wind potential; healthcare and pharma, aging population, private hospital consolidation, and demand for diagnostics and elder care; tourism and hospitality, high ROI in boutique hotels, resort conversions, and marina developments;  food and beverage, high-quality exports, fragmented production landscape, and rising demand for branded Greek products;  technology and BPO/shared services, cost-effective nearshoring for EU markets; Athens is growing as a regional tech hub and finally logistics and e-commerce infrastructure, port investments like Piraeus and Thessaloniki, and regional trade flows driving demand.

Jeff:
Investments in Greece offer impressive growth in essential sectors and services. Next, let’s talk about what you see as the key differences, if any, in promoting and closing middle-market transactions in Greece as compared with other parts of Europe, Asia, LatAm, or North America?

Elias:
OK I’ll start with Greece vs. Western Europe/North America. We experience longer timelines in negotiations and due diligence due to documentation gaps and informal business practices.

With Greece vs. Asia/LatAm, regulatory transparency is part of the EU, Greece has harmonized laws and better investor protection than many emerging markets. We also have ease of capital mobility; capital controls have been lifted; foreign ownership is unrestricted in most sectors.

Next is family-owned dynamics, we have many targets that are family-run with little M&A experience. Of course there are succession concerns which, as you know, are critical.

We are also a relationship-driven culture. Trust and personal rapport play a more significant role in Greece, so local advisors are often crucial in the process.

Jeff:
That is helpful insight for our followers to understand.

Let’s talk next about which Greek companies are acquiring businesses located outside of Greece? What countries do they target customarily for searching buyers or sellers?

Elias:
OK. I’ll start with active Greek acquirers. Mytilineos, now METLEN, Public Power Corporation, Motor Oil, and GEK Terna, are active in energy and infrastructure across Europe and the Balkans.

Viohalco & Sarantis pursue expansion in packaging, chemicals, and consumer goods across Southeast Europe.

OTE Group, in the Telecom sector, previously invested in Balkans, now streamlining.

For target regions, the Balkans and Eastern Europe have natural extension of market presence with low language and cultural barriers.

In Western Europe, Germany, Italy and UK, are in technology, brand acquisition, and distribution. And Cyprus, often a first step in outbound M&A, because of historical business ties.

Jeff:
A final question is what are the keys to succeeding with middle-market/cross-border searches and closings in Greece?

Elias:
We have several keys to success with middle-market searches. First is local partners or advisors. Navigating bureaucracy, tax nuances, and relationship building is critical in Greece. Early stakeholder engagement is important and this includes families, lawyers, tax advisors, and sometimes government stakeholders.

Cultural sensitivity is also key, patience and rapport-building are necessary, decisions are consensus-driven in many cases.

Deal structuring and flexibility are key because use of earn-outs, vendor financing, and hybrid structures can align interests. Thorough due diligence, especially legal, tax, and labor due diligence, hidden liabilities are common.

Finally, clarity on exit plans is especially for financial investors. Knowing how and when to exit is crucial in a less liquid M&A market.

Jeff:
Thank you, Elias, this conversation has been very informative about Investing in Greece. Many professional M&A advisors and investors have little experience or understanding of the attractive opportunities for growth and diversification in Greece. Thank you for your time today. We look forward to creating successful transactions for clients in Greece with the addition of your world-class team.

Elias:
Thank you Jeff, I appreciate the conversation.